The set-up: St. Louis would score the 6-4 victory over Cincinnati on Saturday and I think the visiting team will deliver the goods on Sunday afternoon as well. Carlos Martinez will be called upon by the Cards, while the Reds go with Anthony DeSclafani.

The pitchers: Martinez is so far 3-2 with a 1.83 ERA. Martinez returned from injury and put together a mediocre first outing for his standards, giving up two runs off four hits with five walks and five strikeouts over four innings in a no-decision to Miami on Tuesday. There's no reason not to think though that Martinez won't be able to make significant progression in his second outing back, note that he's 2-1 with a tiny 1.83 ERA on the road thus far.

DeSclafani is 0-1 with a 7.20 ERA. DeSclafani comes in off a loss on Tuesday, his first big league start since late September 2016. He'd predictably get rocked for four runs off six hits and a walk over five innings against the Rockies. Clearly the book is still out on the right-hander at this point.

The pick: St. Louis has a knack at winning the "important" games, as evidenced by its 21-11 (+8.4 units) record against the division. Cincinnati on the other hand is a horrible 6-20 (-13.2 units) against divisional foes. This line is way out of whack. Play on the Cards.