The set-up: After yesterday's 5-1 defeat, I look for the Royals to at the very least keep this one close enough into the latter frames to earn the comfortable victory with the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. The Reds hand the ball to Tyler Mahle, while the home side goes with Jason Hammel.

The pitchers: Mahle is 4-6 with a 4.33 ERA thus far. Most recently Mahle gave up three runs off six hits over five innings in a no-decision against the Rockies on Thursday. Mahle has struggled of late, completing just six innings in just five of his 13 starts this year. Mahle has been hit or miss this season, being especially average on the road with a 3-3, 4.49 ERA.

Hammel is 2-6 with a 5.12 ERA to this point. Hammel most recently gave up four earned runs off eight hits with one walk while striking out six over six innings in a loss to the A's on Thursday. Hammel has struggled for most of the season, however he's now started to turn things around by giving up just seven earned runs over his last 24.1 innings of work.

The pick: The Reds earned the rare road win last night, but they're still just 12-20 (-3 units on the road). It's hard to say too many positive things about the Royals, however note that they're 6-2 in their last eight after scoring one goal or less in their previous contest. In a contest which I envision being decided late or in extra frames, I'm playing the Royals on the run-line.