The set-up: Both teams come in off victories on Wednesday. Both of these starting pitchers have looked brilliant at times this year and poor in others. I'm expecting an all out battle in the opener of this important three-game set and as such, I think laying the reasonable mid-sized price for the extra run-and-a-half of insurance is the correct move in this matchup. The Red Sox go with David Price, while the Mariners go with Felix Hernandez.

The pitchers: Price is so far 7-4 with a 4.00 ERA. Price most recently gave up two runs off five hits and three walks over six innings in a 4-2 win over the Chicago White Sox on Saturday. Price has been decent of late, but I think he's going to struggle against the hard-hitting home side.

Hernandez is so far 6-5 with a 5.70 ERA. After dominating the Rays over eight scoreless in his previous start, Hernandez predictably came back down to Earth in his next start against the Rays, allowing six runs over three innings on Saturday. I'll point out though that Hernandez has been much better at home (4.04 ERA) than on the road (7.71)

The pick: Both teams have been excellent this season and in my opinion, this one has "nail-biter" written all over it. Grab the 1.5 runs.