The set-up: Rick Porcello has been better than advertised for the Red Sox this season, but James Paxton is the correct call in this matchup in my opinion (especially at home.) I

The pitchers: Porcello is so far 8-3 with a 3.54 ERA. Porcello most recently gave up three runs off five hits and three walks while striking out six over six innings in a loss to the White Sox on Sunday. Porcello owns a super 80:20 K/W so far this year and it's difficult to say anything negative about him, I simply think that he's in the wrong place at the wrong time in this one.

Paxton is so far 6-1 with a 3.02 ERA. Paxton most recently went seven innings against the Rays on Sunday, giving up three runs and no walks with ten strikeouts. 73 percent of his pitches went for strikes and the southpaw was also able to induce 15 swinging strikes and seven ground ball outs. To go along with his highly respectable ERA, note that Paxton also has a sharp 11.2 K/9 (is 3-1 with a 2.79 ERA at home as well.)

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Boston is just 2-6 in its last eight against right-handed starters, while Seattle is 30-15 (+16.8 units) against right-handed starters. Great value in my opinion, play on the Mariners.