The set-up: The Mets have struggled on the road, while the Diamondbacks have been at their best at home. I expect these trends to continue on Sunday. New York hands the ball to Zach Wheeler, while Arizona goes with Clay Buchholz.

The pitchers: Wheeler is so far 2-5 with a 4.98 ERA. Wheeler most recently was smashed for six runs off eight hits and four walks while striking out two over 5.2 innings in a loss to Atlanta on Tuesday. Wheeler has been more "miss" than "hit" this year and note that he's been poor on the road with an elevated 4.99 ERA.

Buchholz is so far 1-1 with a 3.21 ERA. Buchholz comes in off a sub-par outing as well, allowing six runs off seven hits with two walks while striking out two over four innings in a no-decision to Pittsburgh on Tuesday. Previous to this disaster though Buchholz had given up one or two runs over his first four starts of the season. And despite his latest performance, Buchholz still owns a sharp 3.21 ERA and 1.04 WHIP.

The pick: Note as well that Buchholz has been particularly effective in all "day" games to this point with a sharp 2.12 ERA as well. I'm banking on Buchholz outdueling his "on again off again" counterpart and for the hard-hitting Diamondbacks to do the rest. Play on Arizona.