The set-up: The Orioles took yesterday's interleague contest 7-5, but I think the home side will bounce back on Sunday in what sets up to be a nice mismatch on the mound working in its favor. Baltimore goes with David Hess, while the Braves go with Brandon McCarthy.

The pitchers: Hess is so far 2-3 with a 4.82 ERA. Hess most recently was rocked for five runs off five hits with three walks over 4.2 innings in a loss to Washington on Tuesday. Hess had a decent stretch in May, but he's since allowed a combined ten runs over his last two outings. Note that he's 1-1 with a 6.75 ERA in all "day" games to this point.

McCarthy is so far 5-3 with a 4.89 ERA. McCarthy's last appearance was back on June 15th, so he comes in plenty rested. McCarthy's ERA (4.89) and WHIP (1.49), along with his 7.3 K/9 over 14 starts are serviceable. Note that he's been at his best in all "day" games with a 2-0, 2.82 ERA record as well.

The pick: And take it for what you will, but Baltimore is already a terrible 8-20 (-12.1 units) in all "day" games this season, while Atlanta is 17-7 (+13.6 units) in all "day" games. I think Hess has a meltdown this afternoon and I look for the hungry and revenge-minded home side to take advantage. Lay the price, play on the Braves.