The set-up: Zack Greinke's ERA and WHIP are aligning with his career numbers for the Diamondbacks as we approach the half way point. Marlins rookie Trevor Richards has looked brilliant at times and very pedestrian in others so far this season. While Richards' potential seems tremendous at this point, I still think that the veteran Greinke is the correct call in this matchup.

The pitchers: Greinke is so far 7-5 with a 3.66 ERA. Greinke comes in off a victory over Pittsburgh on Saturday, giving up two hits with seven strikeouts over six scoreless. Greinke threw 53 of his 88 pitches for strikes on his way to his eighth quality start of the year.

Richards is so far 2-4 with a 4.91 ERA. Richards comes in off a strong outing against Colorado on Saturday, giving up one run off three hits over six innings. Starts like that though have been few and far between (just his third quality outing out of nine trips to the hill) though and while he's been better at home than on the road, I still think he's in the wrong place at the wrong time in this matchup.

The pick: Because take it for what you will, but Arizona is already 3-1 (+1.7 units) this year as a road favorite in the -125 to -175 range, while Miami is 5-12 (-5.2 units) as a home underdog in the +125 to +175 range. I expect Greinke to continue his progression with another strong outing. Lay the price.