The set-up: The Phillies took two of three from the Nationals in the nation's capital last week. Last night Philadelphia held on for a 3-0 win over the Yankees at home. Tanner Roark and Washington are back tonight, so the home side will counter with its ace Aaron Nola.

The pitchers: Roark is so far 3-8 with a 4.27 ERA. Roark comes in off an outing to forget against Philadelphia on Friday, allowing six runs over 4.1 innings. Roark's peripherals suggest that rockier times are ahead as well, as his 7.7 K/9 and 3.2 BB/9 both point to regression sooner rather than later.

Nola is so far 9-2 with a 2.58 ERA. Nola most recently gave up two runs off four hits and three walks over six innings while also striking out five in Washington last weekend. Nola has to be feeling confident tonight as well as he's 6-0 with a 1.86 ERA at home this season.

The pick: Philadelphia has looked a lot better at the plate of late, as it produced considerable production in Washington last weekend. This play comes down to the starting pitchers for me though and in my opinion, Nola has a massive advantage over Roark. Lay the price, play on the Phillies.