The set-up: I think the home side will take advantage of this favorable match up on the mound in the opener of this inter-league series. The visitors go with James Shields, while the home side goes with Luis Castillo.

The pitchers: Shields is so far 3-9 with a 4.29 ERA. Shields comes in off his best start of the year, going seven shutout against the Twins on Wednesday. It was his first shutout of the season and in my opinion, a predictable "letdown" looks imminent here. Shields has looked much better over the last month, but I'm still very skeptical.

Castillo is so far 5-8 with a 5.85 ERA. Castillo most recently allowed five run off six hits while striking out four over five innings in a loss to the Braves on Wednesday. Note that he's been at his best at home though with a respectable 4.10 ERA.

The pick: And take it for what you will as well, but Chicago is a poor 3-9 (-3.9 units) in all inter-league games this year, while Cincinnati is 6-1 (+5.8 units) in all inter-league games.

I think Castillo gets back on track, I look for Shields to stumble and everything points to the home side taking advantage. Lay the price