The set-up: One of these starters has made the most of his time this year, while the other has for the most part struggled this season. Despite these facts, I firmly believe that Dallas Keuchel can get back on track here and take advantage of what I think to be a major mismatch on the mound. The Rangers go with Austin Bibens-Dirkx.

The pitchers: Keuchel is so far 4-8 with a 4.22 ERA. Keuchel earned a no-decision against the Jays on Wednesday despite allowing six runs off seven hits and three walks over 5.1 innings while striking out three. Keuchel gave up five runs in the top of the first, but settled down after that.

Bibens-Dirkx is so far 1-1 with 3.57 ERA. Most recently he went five scoreless against the toothless Padres on Tuesday. So far the 33 year old has a 1.32 WHIP and 17:6 K/BB over 22.2 innings.

The pick: Houston has responded well in this spot all year though, going 3-0 (+3 units) after three or more consecutive losses (22-7, +13.2 units in the same position over the last three seasons!), while Texas has been a disaster in this position by going just 18-30 (-2.2 units) against clubs with winning records. I'm banking on Keuchel bouncing back and for the defending champs to respond as well. Lay the price.