The set-up: Houston held on for a 5-3 win last night in Texas, but I think we'll see a much more lop-sided result this evening. The visitors hand the ball to Gerrit Cole, while the home side goes with Mike Minor.

The pitchers: Cole is so far 9-2 with a 2.50 ERA. He most recently allowed three runs (just one earned) off five hits with six strikeouts over six frames in a loss to the Rays on Friday. It was his first loss since April and note that he still hasn't allowed more than four runs in any outing this year. Cole has to be feeling good in this spot as he's 6-1 with a 2.14 ERA on the road this season.

Minor is so far 6-4 with a 4.64 ERA. Minor most recently held San Diego to just one hit while striking out five over seven scoreless. Minor had a strong June, but I'm still skeptical that he's completely "turned the corner." Note that he has a poor 4.92 ERA in all "night" games this year.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Houston is already 25-10 (+6.6 units) against divisional opponents, while Texas is just 14-24 (-2.3 units) against the division. I expect the defending champs to keep the pedal on the metal in this favorable matchup. Lay the price.