The set-up: Chicago is out to avenge yesterday's 3-2 setback. Matt Harvey has seemingly turned things around of late for the Reds, but I think he's going to stumble in this difficult venue finally. The home side goes with Tyler Chatwood.

The pitchers: Harvey is so far 4-5 with a 4.91 ERA. Most recently he went 5.2 scoreless while striking out six in a win over the Brewers on Sunday. As noted off the top, Harvey has been better of late, but note that he's still an atrocious 1-4 with a 5.40 ERA on the road, while also sporting a ballooned 6.00 ERA in all "day" games.

Chatwood is so far 3-5 with a 4.54 ERA. Most recently he gave up seven runs over five innings in a fortunate no-decision against the Twins on Saturday. Chatwood's been better on the road than at home this year, but note that he owns a respectable 3.99 ERA in all "day" games.

The pick: Take it for what you will, but Cincinnati is a terrible 21-27 (-2.4 units) against teams with winning records this year, while Chicago is 18-11 against clubs with winning records. I think Harvey's been "throwing over his head" of late, while Chatwood comes in focused and hungry. Play on the Cubs.