The set-up: Chicago will be eager to get back onto the field of play today after Saturday afternoon's victory and it'll be feeling pretty confident with Jon Lester on the hill. Cincinnati goes with Luis Castillo.

The pitchers: Castillo is so far 5-8 with a 5.53 ERA. Castillo comes in off a rare decent outing, allowing one run over 6.2 innings over the toothless White Sox on Monday. Over six previous starts though he'd given up three earned runs or more in each (note that he's a brutal 2-5 with an elevated 6.70 ERA on the road this year.)

Lester is so far 11-2 with a 2.25 ERA. He most recently gave up four runs and three walks with five strikeouts over five innings in a win over the Twins on Sunday. Lester wasn't at his best, but the veteran still managed to find a way to win. Note that Lester comes in having won seven straight, while sporting a sharp 1-5, 1.49 ERA record at home.

The pick: Ultimately I believe that Lester is being severely undervalued in this matchup. Lay the price with confidence, play on the Cubs.