The set-up: I think that Phillies ace Aaron Nola is well worth the price of admission in this matchup. The Mets send Corey Oswalt to the mound in the opener of this three-game National League series.

The pitchers: Nola is so far 11-2 with a 2.41 ERA. He most recently gave up one run over seven innings with two walks and nine K's in a victory over Baltimore on Wednesday. Nola has thrown a quality start in 14 of his 16 outings this year. Note that he's been solid on the road as well with 3-2, 3.23 ERA record.

Oswalt is so far 0-1 with a 7.94 ERA. He most recently allowed two runs off five hits over four innings in a no-decision to the Blue Jays on Wednesday. It was just his second career start and he was on a short leash, limited to only 65 pitches. Oswalt will be on a pitch count again tonight, which puts added pressure on the Mets relievers.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Philadelphia is a super 38-27 (+11.8 units) against right-handed starters this year, while New York is just 25-35 (-10.9 units) against right-handed starters. No upset here, as I expect Nola to take care of business in this favorable matchup. Lay the price.