The set-up: Texas looks poised for a classic "letdown" here in my opinion after its 3-0 road win at Detroit yesterday afternoon. Boston comes in off a 7-4 win at KC last night and I'm expecting it to carry over that momentum in the opener of this AL series in what sets up as another favorable matchup on the mound for it. The visitors go with Mike Minor, while the home side goes with Eduardo Rodriguez.

The pitchers: Minor is so far 6-4 with a 4.63 ERA. Minor most recently gave up four runs off seven hits and three walks over six innings in a no-decision to the Astros on Wednesday. Minor has looked brilliant at times this year, and very pedestrian in others, but note that he's a terrible 2-2 with a 6.82 ERA on the road thus far.

Rodriguez is so far 10-3 with a 3.84 ERA. Rodriguez most recently went six scoreless while striking out six in a win over Washington on Wednesday. Rodriguez has to be feeling pretty confident here as well as he's 5-2 with a 3.91 ERA at home this season.

The pick: And take it for what you will, but Texas is a horrible 18-32 (-4.2 units) this year against teams with winning records, while Boston is 32-16 (+3.5 units) against clubs with losing records. Rodriguez is well worth the price of admission in this lop-sided matchup on the mound. Lay the price, play on the Red Sox.