The set-up: After a great start to the season, Jake Arrieta has looked shaky over the last month for the Phillies. While that's true, I still think he'll have more than enough here to get the better of the Marlins' Wei-Yin Chen. Great value overall on the visitors in this matchup in my opinion.

The teams: Arrieta is so far 6-6 with a 3.47 ERA. He actually got back on track in his last start against the Pirates on Saturday by allowing two runs off six hits with one walk, while also striking out eight over seven innings. Arrieta looks to close the first half strong now and improve upon his respectable 5-4, 2.86 ERA record in all night games this season.

Chen is so far 2-6 with a 6.14 ERA. He most recently allowed seven runs off seven hits over 4.1 innings in a loss to Washington on Saturday. The southpaw has struck out more than five opponents just once in its his 14 starts this year and note that he's just 1-5 with a 6.09 ERA in all night contests.

The pick: Chen has been a major disappointment this season and he's shown nothing whatsoever that he'll be able to "flip a switch" here. Arrieta on the other hand clearly turned the corner again with his latest performance and there's no reason not to think that the highly paid veteran won't be able to carry that momentum over into this one. I'm banking on that happening, play on the Phillies.