The set-up: Jose Berrios has been better at home than on the road for the Twins this year. Chris Archer has been "hit of miss" for the Rays all season though and in my opinion, I think he's in over his head in this matchup.

The pitchers: Archer is so far 3-4 with a 4.41 ERA. He most recently returned from injury to give up three runs off six hits with two walks over 3.1 innings in a fortunate no-decision to Detroit on Monday. It was his first start in over five weeks and suffice it to say, I think he's going to struggle here as well in his second start back.

Berrios is so far 9-7 with a 3.41 ERA. He most recently allowed one run off six hits while striking out eight over seven innings in a victory over Kansas City on Monday. Berrios has been quietly dominating for a while now, having posted quality starts in six of his last seven to the hill.

The pick: As mentioned off the top, Berrios has been better at home (7-2, 2.49 ERA) than on the road this season (2-5, 4.78). Expect that trend to continue as he takes advantage of Archer, who will surely need more time to get back to normal form after such a long lay off. Lay the price.