The set-up: I think the massive talent gap on the mound in this one makes Jon Lester and the hard-hitting Cubbies well worth the price of admission in this particular matchup. The Padres go with the erratic Eric Lauer.

The pitchers: Lester is so far 11-2 with a 2.45 ERA. He most recently gave up four runs off six hits and three walks over 6.1 innings in a no-decision to the Reds on Sunday. Previous to this sub-par effort Lester had allowed just six earned runs over a 37 innings stretch, so I'm definitely not going to over-react. Note that he's 6-1 with a 2.96 ERA on the road this year as well.

Lauer is so far 5-5 with a 4.40 ERA. He most recently allowed one earned run over five innings in a win over the Diamondbacks on Thursday. Lauer though would allow nine batters to reach base, ultimately he was the beneficiary of a few timely double plays. Note that he's just 3-3 with a 4.58 ERA at home this year.

The pick: And take it for what you will, but Chicago is already 28-17 (+2.6 units) this season in all "day" games (also 16-6, +7.3 units against southpaws), while San Diego is just 12-16 (-1.7 units) in all "day" games (and only 10-20, -8.1 units against left-handed starters.) I'm banking on Lester coming in focused. Lay the price, play on Chicago.