The set-up: The Red Sox held on for a 1-0 win yesterday as a -200 favorite. Suffice it to say, I'm predicting a more decisive victory for the visitors on Saturday night. Boston goes with Brian Johnson in this one, while Detroit goes with Mike Fiers.

The pitchers: Johnson is so far 1-2 with a 4.20 ERA. He returns rested after a stint on the DL and the All Star break. Johnson hasn't been perfect this year, but he's been sharp on the road with a 1-1, 2.79 ERA this season.

Fiers is so far 6-6 with a 3.70 ERA. Fiers for the most part has been solid for Detroit this year and it's difficult to point out too many negative faults. If he has had one though, it's been his play in all "night" games where he's just 3-6 with a 4.56 ERA.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Boston is 40-17 (+9.3 units) this year against clubs with losing records, while Detroit is just 13-29 (-5.4 units) against teams with winning records this season. Also note that the Tigers are a terrible 21-37 (-4.8 units) following a loss, while Boston is 48-20 (+17.8 units) following a win. I'm banking on the hard-hitting Red Sox to post a lop-sided victory tonight, so lay the price.