The set-up: The Phillies smashed the Padres 11-5 last night and I think a little bit of "de ja vu" is in store this evening. The visitors go with Luis Perdomo, while the home side goes with Vince Velasquez.

The pitchers: Perdomo is so far 1-4 with a 7.55 ERA. Perdomo stumbled into the break, which likely came at a great time for the struggling right-hander. Regardless, there's no reason for optimism at this point in my opinion, as note that he's still a terrible 1-4 with a 9.26 ERA in all "night" games.

Velasquez is so far 5-8 with a 4.39 ERA. He endured an up and down first half, but he closed decently over the last month with a couple of strong outings.

The pick: Velasquez has been far from perfect, but I still think he'll have more than enough to get the better of his "gas can" counterpart. And take it for what you will as well, but the Padres are just 9-18 (-5.3 units) as a road dog in the +125 to +175 range this year, while the Phillies are 11-4 (+5.6 units) this season as a home favorite in the -125 to -175 range. Lay the price, play on Philadelphia.