The set-up: No upset here in my opinion, as I look for Trevor Bauer to take advantage of familiar surroundings and get the better of his inter-league counterpart. The visitors hand the ball to Jameson Taillon.

The pitchers: Taillon is so far 7-7 with a 3.80 ERA. He comes in off a strong outing against the Reds on Friday, giving up one run over 5.1 innings in the eventual victory. Taillon has been decent of late, but I still think he'll have his hands full in this difficult venue.

Bauer is so far 8-6 with 2.44 ERA. Bauer came out of the break with a "dud" against Texas on Friday, giving up four runs and striking out seven over four innings in what turned out to be no-decision. Previous to that though he'd posted eight straight quality efforts, so there's no reason not to think he won't make an immediate bounce back here (note that he's 4-1 with a 2.23 ERA at home still.)

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Pittsburgh is already a terrible 3-13 (-8.4 units) this year as a road dog in the +125 to +175 range, while Cleveland is 57-31 (+9 units) in its last 88 as a home favorite in the -125 to -175 range. Overwhelming factors working in favor of the home side in this one, so lay the price.