The set-up: The massive talent gap on the mound in this matchup makes the defending champs on the "run line" the correct call in this one in my opinion. The visitors go with Yovani Gallardo, while the home side goes with Dallas Keuchel.

The pitchers: Gallardo is so far 4-1 with a 7.18 ERA. Gallardo comes in off a strong outing against the Tribe on Sunday, going six scoreless, striking out one and walking four. I'll point out though that it was the first start this year that Gallardo has given up less than three earned runs. To go along with his atrocious ERA, he also owns a terrible 21:17 K/BB spanning 36.1 innings.

Keuchel is so far 8-8 with a 3.53 ERA. He most recently gave up one run off two hits over eight innings in a win over the Angels on Friday. Over his last four starts Kuechel is now 4-0 and he's posted 18 strikeouts in the process.

The pick: Gallardo has been consistently inconsistent all year and after his latest gem, a predictable "letdown" looks imminent to me. Keuchel on the other hand has finally "found his groove" and I look for the veteran to continue his progression. Lay the 1.5 runs, play the Astros on the "run line."