The set-up: The massive talent gap on the mound in this matchup makes the hard-hitting home side on the "run line" the correct call in my opinion. The visitors hand the ball to Lance Lynn, while the Red Sox go with ace Chris Sale.

The pitchers: Lynn is so far 7-8 with a 5.23 ERA. He most recently gave up three runs off three hits with six walks over five innings while striking out six in a loss to the Twins on Saturday. Lynn has struggled in July, posting a 7.1 BB/9 and a 7.13 ERA spanning just 17.2 frames of work.

Sale is so far 11-4 with a 2.13 ERA. He most recently went six scoreless against Detroit on Sunday, striking out nine in the process. Sale has now given up just five runs over his last 54 frames, to go along with 87 strikeouts. His 2.13 ERA, 0.83 WHIP and 197:31 K/BB over 135 frames lead the league in most categories.

The pick: Lynn's been a disaster overall this season and he's seemingly gotten worse as it has worn on. It's been the exact opposite for Sale though, who has gotten stronger with each start. I look for those trends to carry over here. Lay the 1.5 runs, play on the Red Sox on the "run line."