The set-up: This series features a number of relatively "even" match ups on the mound, but I think the Phillies have the advantage in this one. The visitors go with Vince Velasquez, while the home side goes with Matt Harvey.

The pitchers: Velasquez is so far 7-8 with a 4.05 ERA. He most recently went seven shutout innings and struck out seven as well in a victory over San Diego on Sunday. Velasquez would throw 58 of his 87 pitches for strikes and he started 15 of the 24 opponents he faced with a strike. Over his last two starts he's now posted ten strikeouts over 13 scoreless frames of work.

Harvey is so far 5-6 with a 5.21 ERA. He's moving in the opposite direction of Velasquez now, most recently giving up eight runs over 3.2 innings, including conceding four home runs. Note that Harvey owns a 5.72 ERA in all "home" games this year also.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Philadelphia is 45-34 (+10.7 units) this year against right-handed starters, while Cincinnati is just 32-44 (-6.4 units) against right-handed starters. I like Velasquez to build of his recent performances and to get the better of Harvey once it's all said and done. Play on the Phillies.