The set-up: The massive talent gap on the mound tonight absolutely justifies in laying the 1.5 runs and the price in this particular matchup. The visitors go with Ariel Jurado, while the home side goes with ace Justin Verlander.

The pitchers: Jurado is so far 0-1 with a 7.71 ERA. Jurado is filing the void left by Cole Hamels, so his spot in the rotation may come down to this single outing for the next while. In his one other appearance in the majors this season he was blown up on the road.

Verlander is so far 10-5 with a 2.19 ERA. He most recently went six scoreless in a win over the Angels on Saturday, giving up five hits, walking two and striking out 11. Verlander had actually been quite pedestrian over three previous starts, so the hard-throwing right-hander will now look to build off this latest effort (note that he's 8-2 with a tiny 1.81 ERA on the road though.)

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Texas is 29-43 (-9.4 units) against right-handed starters this year, while Houston is 44-21 (+9.4 units) against right-handed starters. This one has "b-l-o-w-o-u-t" written all over it. Play on the Astros on the run-line.