The set-up: This series features a couple of interesting match-ups on the mound and this is definitely one of them in my opinion. For a number of different reasons though, I think this one favors the home side. The visitors go with German Marquez, while the Brewers go with Junior Guerra.

The pitchers: Marquez is so far 9-8 with a 4.82 ERA. He most recently gave up two runs off five hits and a walk in a win over the A's on Sunday. Marquez has been "hit or miss" this year though and note that he owns a pedestrian 4.86 ERA in all "night" games.

Guerra is so far 6-7 with a 3.43 ERA. He most recently gave up five runs over four innings in a loss to the Giants on Sunday. Previous to that though he'd given up three earned runs or fewer in six of seven outings. Note as well that he's 3-3 with a very respectable 2.45 ERA at home this season.

The pick: Guerra comes in focused and hungry off his latest poor effort. And thankfully for Guerra he's throwing in front of the home town crowd tonight, a place which he's been downright dominant in. No reason not to think that that momentum/trend doesn't get carried over here as well. The price is right, play on the Brewers.