The set-up: This series features a couple of lop-sided match-ups on the mound and this is definitely one of them in my opinion. For a number of different reasons I absolutely believe that Jake Odorizzi and the home side are well worth the price of admission in this match-up. The visitors send Heath Fillmyer to the hill.

The pitchers: Fillmyer is so far 0-1 with a 3.29 ERA. He most recently gave up three runs off five hits with two walks over five innings in a no-decision to the Yankees on Saturday. Over his first 27.1 big league innings the rookie sports a poor 15:12 K/BB.

Odorizzi is so far 4-7 with a 4.58 ERA. He most recently comes in off a poor outing, giving up five runs off nine hits while striking out five over five innings in a loss to Boston on Saturday. Previous to that he gave up two runs over seven innings and struck out eight against the Royals.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Minnesota is 7-2 in its last nine as a home favorite in the -175 to -250 range, while KC is just 2-5 in its last seven as a road dog in the -175 to -250 range. I like Odorizzi to come in focused and to take advantage of this favorable match-up. Lay the price.