The set-up: These teams have played twice and each has won on its home floor. The Mystics won 75-70 in the first one, while the Aces won 85-73 in the second. I think this strong trend continues here and I expect the home side to also pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS victory as well.

The teams: Las Vegas had a two-game win streak snapped in a loss at home to the Phoenix Mercury as the favorite last time out. And with a game at the surging Connecticut Sun on Sunday, I think it'll get caught looking ahead here as well. The Aces are led by A'ja Wilson with 20.3 points and 8.5 boards per game.

Washington smashed the Dream 86-71 on the road on Tuesday and I think it'll carry that momentum over here, especially with a tough game on the road in Dallas on Sunday afternoon. The Mystics are led by Elena Delle Donne with 20.9 points and 7.5 boards per game.

The pick: As I stated off the top, I think that the home floor advantage will prove to be crucial in this series. Lay the points, play on the Mystics.