The set-up: This series features a couple of interesting match-ups on the mound and this is definitely one of them in my opinion. For a number of different reasons though, I think that Zach Eflin and the home side are well worth the price of admission in this particular match-up. The visitors go with Jose Urena on the mound tonight.

The pitchers: Urena is so far 3-10 with a 4.40 ERA. He most recently went six scoreless against the Nationals on Sunday. Urena has been decent overall this season, but note that he's still a terrible 2-3 with a 5.01 ERA on the road this season.

Eflin is so far 7-3 with a 3.64 ERA. He most recently gave up four runs while striking out four over 5.1 innings in a loss to the Reds on Sunday. He's looked shaky over his last two starts, but I don't think there's any need to over-react at this point. Note that Eflin is 4-1 with a 3.18 ERA at home this year.

The pick: Eflin is also a solid 5-2 with a 3.56 ERA in all "night" games. Urena has likely pitched better than what his win/loss record would indicate, but he's in over his head in this difficult venue in my opinion. I'm banking on Eflin doing just enough to get back into the win column tonight. Lay the price.