The set-up: I believe that the massive talent-gap on the mound makes the Phillies on the "run line" the correct call in this particular match-up. The visitors go with the erratic Wei-Yin Chen, while the home side goes with ace Aaron Nola.

The pitchers: Chen is so far 3-8 with a 5.86 ERA. He most recently was shelled for five runs off five hits with three walks over five innings in a loss to the Braves on Monday. To go along with his poor ERA, Chen also owns a poor 1.49 WHIP and 6.7 K/9.

Nola is so far 12-3 with a 2.35 ERA. He most recently gave up one run off four hits with six strikeouts over eight innings in a no-decision to the Red Sox on Monday. Nola threw 70 percent of his pitches for strikes and to go along with his elite ERA this season, he also owns a sharp 0.97 WHIP.

The pick: Note that Chen is 2-2 with a 2.18 ERA at home, compared to just 1-6 with a 10.27 ERA on the road. Note that Nola is 8-0 with a 1.99 ERA at home. Recent form by Chen suggests he's going to have difficulties here matching pace with the red hot Nola. Lay the 1.5 runs for the near-pick em price. Play on the Phillies on the "run line."