The set-up: This series features a couple of lop-sided match-ups on the mound and this is one of them. In fact, I believe the talent-gap to be so large, that I absolutely have no issues at all in laying the 1.5 runs for the much more reasonable price. The visitors hand the ball to Erasmo Ramirez, while the home side goes with Dallas Keuchel.

The pitchers: Ramirez is so far 0-2 with a 10.24 ERA. He's been out since late April with a shoulder injury, but he's been cleared to go finally tonight after making several re-hab starts over the last few weeks.

Keuchel is so far 9-9 with a 3.53 ERA. He comes in off a no-decision to San Francisco on Tuesday despite allowing just one run off three hits over six innings. Since the start of July Keuchel has given up just 11 runs over 45.2 frames, posting an elite 1.97 ERA in that span.

The pick: This is a mismatch of epic proportions. No upsets today. Keuchel started the 2018 campaign off very slowly, but he's quietly turned the corner over the last month and a half and I look for the hard-throwing right-hander to continue that progression with another gem here. Lay the 1.5 runs on the Astros.