The set-up: This series features a couple of very competitive match-ups on the mound and this is one of them. For a number of different reasons though, I think this one favors Justin Verlander and the defending champs. The home side sends Sean Manaea to the hill in this one.

The pitchers: Verlander is so far 11-8 with a 2.52 ERA. He most recently struck out 11 and walked none in an unfortunate loss to Colorado on Tuesday, giving up two runs over six innings in the end. Verlander has to be feeling confident here as he comes in with a 9-2, 1.74 ERA road record to this point.

Manaea is so far 11-8 with a 3.44 ERA. Manaea has been solid overall this season, but he's scuffled a bit over his last two starts. Note that he's 5-5 with a 3.59 ERA at home.

The pick: It's hard to say too many negative things about Manaea, as for the most part he's been very solid this year. But Verlander has been almost unbeatable on the road and I expect that trend of dominance to carry over here as well. Verlander's run support is down from what it was last season, but I think the visitors take advantage and give their ace some production in this favorable match up. Play on Houston.