The set-up: This series features a couple of lop-sided mis-matches on the mound and this is one of them. In fact I think the talent-gap is so large, that I'm going to lay the 1.5 runs for the near pick-em price on Houston and Gerritt Cole. The home side sends the beleaguered Felix Hernandez to the hill.

The pitchers: Cole is so far 11-5 with a 2.71 ERA. He hasn't been perfect this season, but overall he's been much better than Houston could have possibly asked for. While his numbers have slid a little over the last month, he remains consistent and competitive every time he takes the hill. Note that Cole is 6-3 with a 2.74 ERA on the road as well.

Hernandez is so far 8-11 with a 5.62 ERA. He returns from a short stay in the bullpen after giving up 11 earned runs to the Rangers in his previous start. "The King" has been better at home than on the road this season, but terrible overall and note that he's just 6-6 with a 5.26 ERA in all "night" games.

The pick: Hernandez continues to spiral down the proverbial crapper, while I expect Cole and company to step up and take full advantage. Play on Houston on the "run line."