The set-up: The UNC Tar Heels hit the road to take on the No. 16 Miami Hurricanes and while I'm not predicting an outright upset, I do think the visitors are going to keep this one competitive late. Note that this is a revenge game for the Tar Heels after the Hurricanes took the 24-19 victory in Chapel Hill last October.

The teams: UNC enters off a 38-35 win over Pitt in its conference opener at home on Saturday. The Tar Heels are averaging 24.7 points and allowing 33.3. QB Nathan Elliot has 669 yards, three TD's and four INT's.

Miami comes in off a 31-17 win over Florida International. FIU scored its 17 points in garbage time in the fourth quarter, but regardless, the Hurricanes clearly took the foot off the gas in that one and that's exactly what I'm expecting here as well. Miami is averaging 43.5 PPG and it's allowing just 18.5. QB Malik Rosier as 611 yards, five TD's and two INT's.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but UNC is 4-2 ATS in its last six off a win against a conference rival and 7-4 ATS in its last 11 on the road, while Miami is just 7-8 ATS inits last 15 at home and just 8-9 ATS in its last 17 against the conference. No outright, but closer than expected. Grab the points.