The set-up: Miami is 3-0 to open the season and it'll be looking to kick New England when its down. The Pats enter off a horrible 26-10 road loss to Detroit and I think they're ripe for the picking here. The outright isn't out of the question. Note that New England took the first game last season 35-17, before the Fish countered with a 27-20 home win in the second.

The teams: Miami' QB Ryan Tannehill had 289 passing yards and three TD's in a victory over the Raiders. He now has 687 passing yards and a 7:2 TD/INT. WR Kenny Still had 61 receiving yards last week and overall he has 184. Miami is averaging 25 PPG and it's allowing 17.3 (good for sixth.)

New England's season will essentially be over if it falls to 1-3. Miami can smell the blood in the water and will look to take advantage of a Patriots team which is averaging 19 PPG and allowing 25.7 (21st overall).

The pick: Take it for what you will, but the Pats are just 1-4 ATS in their last five after posting less than 150 passing yards in their previous game, while the Fish are 4-1 ATS in their last five following a SU victory. "The Changing Of The Guard" is happening right before our eyes. Get ready for it. But grab the points just in case!