The set-up: Houston enters off a 27-22 home loss to the Giants, while Indianapolis returns home after a 20-16 loss to the Eagles. Note that the Colts took both meetings from the Texans last year. And that was without Andrew Luck.

The teams: While the Texans rank eighth in the NFL in YPG with an average of 396.3, that production has not translated into much scoring so far. Houston is essentially already out of playoff contention after starting the year 0-3. QB DeShaun Watson has a 5:3 TD/INT. Last week the defense surrendered 379 total yards. The Texans average 19.7 points and they allow 24.7.

Indianapolis is averaging 20 PPG and it's allowing 21. Luck has 662 passing yards and a 5:3 TD/INT. TY Hilton so far has 179 receiving yards.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Houston is just 4-7 ATS in its last 11 against teams with losing records, while Indianapolis is 6-3 ATS in its last nine against clubs with losing records. With a chance to stick a final nail in the Texans coffin, I look for Luck and the home side to find a way to get the job done here.