The set-up: I absolutely believe that an outright win is possible here, but I'm still going to recommend grabbing the points. BYU has improved dramatically on the defensive side of the ball and it does have the "revenge" factor working in its favor today, but I still don't think it'll be enough to keep pace with the high-flying Aggies. Last year Utah State won 40-24 at home in this game.

The teams: Utah State is rested, coming into this one off its bye week. The Aggies have won four straight, most recently a 42-32 home victory over Air Force. Overall Utah State is averaging 51.5 PPG and allowing only 23.8. QB Jordan Love has 1,070 yards and a 5/3 TD:INT (although no INT's in the last two games.)

Despite being smashed 35-7 last week by the No. 11 Huskies, the Cougars still concede just 20.6 PPG, which ranks them 35th in the country. However, the offense is the weak point, a unit which ranks near the bottom of many offensive categories. QB Tanner Mangum has 772 passing yards and 3:2 TD/INT (the offense does focus mainly on the ground game.)

The pick: Take it for what you will though, but note that BYU is just 7-19 ATS in its last 26 after posting less than 170 passing yards in their previous game and just 2-7 ATS in its last nine at home overall, while Utah State is a sharp 4-1 ATS in its last five away from friendly confines. The Aggies are well balanced on offense and they're also well rested. The Utah State defense is improved from last year as well. As mentioned off the top, as good as the Cougars have looked on the defensive side of the ball this year, the offense has been a major disappointment. Grab the points, but don't be surprised by an outright upset!