The set-up: Chicago enters off an impressive 48-10 home win over Tampa Bay back on September 30th, while Miami comes in off a 27-17 road loss to Cincinnati. I'm expecting a hard-fought, lower-scoring "under" once it's all said and done.

The teams: Chicago is averaging 27.8 PPG, but more impressively is the fact that it's allowing just 16.2 PPG, ranked third overall. QB Mitch Trubsky had 354 passing yards and six TD's against the Bucs last weekend, his best ever game as a pro. Can anyone say "letdown" spot?

Clearly Miami can ill afford to turn this one into a "track meet" and expect to hang with the high-flying Bears. Miami is averaging only 288 yards per game, ranked 30th in the NFL (19.8 PPG), while allowing 23.4. QB Ryan Tannehill had 185 passing yards, one TD and two INT's last weekend.

The pick: Take it for what you will, but Chicago has seen the total go "under" the number in five of its last eight as a favorite and in nine of its last 15 against teams with winning records, while Miami has seen the total go "under" in seven of its last 12 against teams with winning records and in seven of its last nine as an underdog in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range. This number is a little high, play the "under."