The set-up: The Falcons have lost three in a row. This has essentially become a "must win" game for the Falcons, as another loss to a divisional foe and a 1-5 record would be too much of a hole for them to climb out of. Tampa started the year on fire, but it went into its "bye week" off two straight losses. And now the Bucs welcome back Jameis Winston under center, a situation which will surely need some time to develop property chemistry. In my opinion, the stage is set for a lop-sided home blowout victory.

The teams: Tampa's defense though is the main reason why I believe that Falcons' QB Matt Ryan and company can bounce back today. Last year the Bucs were last in the league in the pass rush, and this season they're ranked 30th.

Despite the 1-4 record, Ryan continues to put up impressive numbers with 1,601 passing yards so far, ranked 7th overall.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Bucs are a terrible 1-4 ATS in their last five road games against teams with losing home records, while the Falcons are 7-2 ATS in their last nine after two or more SU losses, including a loss to a divisional foe in their most recent. As mentioned off the top, this one has "rout" written all over it. Lay the points.