The set-up: Houston comes in complacent here in my opinion after three straight wins, most recently a 42-20 victory on the road at ECU. Conversely, it's going to be "all hands on deck" for Navy, which has lost three in a row, most recently a 24-17 setback to Temple. Note as well that this is a "revenge" game for Midshipmen after the Cougars won 24-14 at home last year.

The teams: Houston is averaging 48.7 PPG and it's allowing 28. QB D'Eriq King has 1,571 passing yards, 20 TD's and only three INT's. The Cougars are rolling and it's difficult to say too many negative things about them, so I'm not even going to bother. I simply feel the conditions are right here for a bit of a mental letdown in their second road game and on such a long and commanding win streak.

Also in facing lowly Navy, who won't be going down without a fight this afternoon. The Midshipmen average 28 PPG and they allow 31.8. Malcolm Perry leads the team in rushing with 632 yards.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Houston is just 1-4 ATS in its last five as a favorite in the 10.5 to 21 points range, while Navy is 2-0 ATS in its last two as an underdog in the same range. Look for the hungry Midshipmen to keep this one competitive until the final moments.