The set-up: Tampa's fallen on hard times since starting out 2-0, coming into this one having lost three straight. Cleveland is 2-1 in its last three, but it got destroyed at home by the high-flying Chargers last weekend. I believe the conditions are right for a lower-scoring "under" between these two hungry teams.

The teams: The Browns offense looked terrible last week against a pretty mediocre Chargers' defense. Baker Mayfield was picked off twice and he only connected on 47.8 percent of his passes. So far he has a 4/5 TD:INT ratio. Mayfield doesn't have many standout receivers, so look for Cleveland to try and establish the run here so as to alleviate some of the pressure of their rookie pivot.

The Bucs fired defensive coordinator Mike Smith following a 34-29 setback to the Falcons last Sunday. With the shift in management, I believe we'll see a marked improvement on that side of the ball this weekend.

The pick: As mentioned off the top, I believe the "conditions" are right for a lower-scoring "chess match," rather than a wide open "shoot-out." Play the "under."