The set-up: The Patriots look poised for a letdown here in my opinion after their epic shootout victory at home over the Chiefs last Sunday night. The Bears recent momentum was stopped in a humbling loss to Miami last week and I believe they'll bounce back and find a way to defend Soldier Field.

The teams: Tom Brady faced the league's worst pass defense last week and he shredded it. It was a dream match-up and the legend delivered the goods. But we've already seen Brady struggle this year in difficult road venues against capable defenses.

And Khalil Mack and the Bears' defense at home is an entirely different "animal" than KC. Brady may have looked great last weekend, but what looked horrible for New England was its defense. The unit is lucky that Brady played as well as he did, otherwise the Chiefs would still be undefeated. Suffice it to say, I think that Bears' QB Mitch Trubisky will have his opportunities today.

The pick: The Bears have yet to lose at home this year and I believe that trend continues. And take it for what you will as well, but note that Chicago is 4-1 ATS in its last five as a home dog of three points or less. Play on the Bears.