The set-up: Toronto has started off the year by going 3-0 SU/ATS. Minnesota is 2-2, but 0-2 on the road. The Wolves though offer fantastic value in an upset role in my opinion and while I'm going to stop short in calling for the outright upset, I do think the Raptors are finally poised for a bit of a mental letdown here.

The pick: And that's because note that TO is just 2-7 ATS in its last nine home games in which it enters on a three games or more ATS/SU unbeaten streak. Look for Minnesota's deep and talented line-up to keep this one competitive until the final moments and grab the points.