The set-up: I think this is a great "situational" play on the "under." After a disastrous campaign last year, the Canadiens have been much better this year, most recently coming in off a hard-fought 3-2 win at home over the Flames. They're 5-1-2 overall, including 4-1 at home, mostly due to vastly improved defensive play and goaltending from Carey Price. The Sabres are 5-4 overall and 2-2 at home, but after a successful 3-2 road trip, including winning back-to-back games, I think Buffalo suffers a predictable "letdown" offensively here.

The pick: And take it for what you will as well, but the Sabres have seen the total go "under" the number in seven of their last nine following a two games or more unbeaten streak on the road. This number is high, play the "under."