The set-up: Oakland only has one victory on the season and I think it'll struggle containing Andrew Luck, who continues to gain confidence each week, despite being undermanned on both sides of the ball.

The teams: Luck had 156 yards and four TD's in last week's blowout win at home over the hapless Bills. Marlon Mack ran for 126 yards and a TD. Luck is getting improved play from his offensive line and I think that progression continues this week in what sets up as another favorable matchup.

Oakland coach Jon Gruden was signed to a ten year contract, so he's gutting the team and rebuilding it the way he sees fit. Gruden's indecision across the board has hurt the team in the short-term and probably in the long-term as well.

The pick: Take it for what you will, but note that Oakland is just 1-3-1 ATS in its last five at home, while Indianapolis is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 games on the road against teams with a losing home record. I like Luck to lay the hammer down and further expose Gruden's complete ineptitude. Lay the points.