The set-up: This is a great "situational" play. Miami has been solid in the early going, but with a game at home against the Kings on Monday, look for the visitors to rest some of their starters in the second game of the back to back. Charlotte already beat the Heat 113-112 early in the year, but after losing three of its last four, I'm expecting the home side to come in focused on the task at hand.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Miami is just 2-7 ATS in its last nine in the second game of a back-to-back when playing that second contest on the road. This one has "blowout" written all over it, lay the points.