The set-up: Pittsburgh lost 26-14 in this matchup at home earlier in the year and I think it'll have its hands full in this hostile environment Sunday as well. The Steelers are poised for a letdown here in my opinion after three straight wins. Conversely, it's all hands on deck this week for Baltimore after losing three of its last four, including a 36-21 setback at Carolina last weekend.

The teams: The Steelers are averaging 418.1 YPG on offense, while allowing 359.7 YPG. Note there's a major concern about QB Ben Roethlisberger who fractured his index finger on his left hand.

Baltimore is only allowing 293.8 YPG. The offense is averaging 379.3 YPG. Last week the defense struggled against Cam Newton, but the unit catches a break this week facing the lumbering (and now injured) Roethlisberger.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Pittsburgh is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight trying to revenge a loss against an opponent, while Baltimore is 4-2 ATS in its last six after two or more SU losses. I'm banking on the more desperate team getting the job done today. Lay the points.