The set-up: No need to overthink this one. I think the Pacers get caught looking past their lowly non-conference opponent here. After winning two straight the Pacers were dumped by a desperate Pistons team last time out. The Mavericks don't have that same luxury though, as they've lost five straight, most recently to the Clippers on Monday. From a situational stand point, I think this one sets up great for the home side.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Indiana is just 13-16 ATS on the road this year, while Dallas is 10-3 ATS as a home underdog. Grab the points.

8* play