The set-up: I don't expect either of these conference leaders to give an inch tonight. Houston has won five of six, including back-to-back victories over the Pelicans and Spurs, while the Bucks come in off back-to-back wins as well over the Cavs and Heat. Note that Houston was without point guard Chris Paul when it lost to the Bucks at home in January, setting up the revenge game for the visitors tonight. From a situational stand point, I absolutely believe this sets up as more of a "run-and-gun" shootout than a slower-paced "chess match."

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Houston has seen the total go "over" the number in seven of nine this season off a win vs. a division rival, while Milwaukee has seen the total go "over" in seven of ten this year after two straight blowout wins by 15 points or more. With each team pushing the pace from start to finish, I expect this total to fly "over" sooner, rather than later.

10* play