The set-up: This one has the feel of whichever of these defensive minded clubs has its hands on the ball last is going to win this game. In a contest which I do indeed see coming "down to the wire," I'm going to recommend grabbing the points. The Red Raiders were knocked out of the quarterfinals of the Big 12 Tournament game to WVU, but since then Texas Tech has been unstoppable and after beating No. 1 Gonzaga, I believe they carry that momentum over here. MSU survived Duke, but the Spartans experience their toughest matchup to date. Michigan State has struggled with offensive consistency this season, which doesn't bode well facing the Red Raiders right now.

The pick: Clearly these teams are evenly matched. I'll point out though that Texas Tech is already 3-1 ATS this year as a neutral court underdog or pick and 8-2 ATS in its last ten vs. good offensive teams which score 77-plus points per contest, while MSU is just 1-3 ATS in its last four as a neutral court favorite of three points or less or pick and only 1-3 ATS this season when playing with five or six days rest. Grab the points.

Texas Tech Red Raiders

10* play